The world economy cannot count on growth to solve the global debt problem – and stimulus measures are not a sustainable solution. In the third installment in their series “The Search for a New Global Equilibrium,” Dr. Alexander Mirtchev and Dr. Norman Bailey argue the time is ripe for a “new Magna Carta” – a redefinition of the social contract among the government, Main Street and Wall Street.

As always, the ultimate hopes of addressing the issue of debt appear to be pinned on growth as a way out of the rising waters of debt. Rightfully so. And yet, in the current economic circumstances, growth seems more likely to come from a divine miracle than from mere mortals making the hard choices that must be made.

In reality, the prospects of global economic growth in the context of prevailing indebtedness are faced, on one side, by the Scylla of austerity measures and the Charybdis of stimulus packages that invariably lead to higher states of indebtedness. Essentially, a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t conundrum.

The threat posed by Scylla entails accommodating, on one side, the imperatives for sometimes draconian austerity measures, which could, but, have a dampening effect on growth by restricting demand.

In Portugal, the government has cut state pensions by up to 10%, cut public sector salaries by 5% and increased the value-added tax to 23%, one of the highest rates in the world. Subsequently, the government fell.

Similar measures are being taken in Spain, Ireland, Greece and elsewhere. Furthermore, the reactions to such measures should not be overlooked – witness the demonstrations that regularly take over the streets of Athens, Paris or Lisbon (and Madison, Wisconsin).

On the other side is Charybdis – the prospects for inducing growth via stimulus packages confronted by mounting debt that can lead to stagnation. When total debt in Japan rose beyond 90% of GDP, for example, the effect of adding further debt was to restrict growth. In other words, in the current situation, chasing growth to breach the surface of the ocean of debt does not break the vicious circle – it reinforces it.

We are unlikely to navigate safely between these two ancient monsters. There is no evidence that the prospects for a debt tsunami would dissipate in their own right. Now that Social Security payouts exceed income – more than $200 billion this year and trending towards $1 trillion within the decade, according to the 2009 Financial Report of the U.S. Government – entitlement programs in the United States are reaching the point of no return, adding significantly to the debt service burden each year.

Many developed and developing economies are also exposed to increasing demands on the state to finance a range of social commitments, from pensions to infrastructure-development financing. U.S. states such as California, New York, Florida, New Jersey, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin are tackling budget shortfalls of up to 30%, and cities such as Chicago are facing deficits of close to 10%.

In Europe, cities like Lisbon, with its 7.3% deficit, are urgently looking for ways to cut costs, while entire regions in Spain, Britain, Belgium and elsewhere are themselves insolvent, adding their buckets of water to the debt ocean.

The examples of the devastating effect of the debt burden range from the unsustainable premiums countries like Greece and Portugal must incur when raising funds, to the case of Iceland, where the whole country went bankrupt.

Read the full article by Alexander Mirtchev and Norman Bailey

Warszawska prokuratura z urz?du bada, czy wszcz?? ?ledztwo w sprawie publicznego zniewa?enia prezydenta RP s?owami “bydl?” i ”pajac” przez sto?ecznego radnego PiS Macieja Maciejowskiego. Za taki czyn grozi do 3 lat wi?zienia.Kontrowersyjny wpis na Twitterze, fot. Piotr Wygoda /East News

1 listopada, po awaryjnym l?dowaniu Boeinga 767 w Warszawie, Maciejowski napisa? na Twitterze: “Cywilny boeing jest przygotowany do l?dowania na brzuchu a bombowiec Tu-154 nie wytrzymuje zderzenia z brzoz? tak?!!!!!!”. Doda?: “A teraz te szuje z PO b?d? pia?y jaki to wielki sukces ry?ego”. Gdy zapowiedziano konferencj? prasow? prezydenta Bronis?awa Komorowskiego, który gratulowa? kpt. Tadeuszowi Wronie l?dowania, radny doda?: “Mia?a by? konf. LOT, ale to bydl? musi si? podlansowa?, podzi?kuj swoim panom z Kremla pajacu”.
Na wniosek prezesa PiS Jaros?awa Kaczy?skiego rzecznik dyscypliny partyjnej zaj?? si? ju? spraw?. Sam Maciejowski dzie? pó?niej napisa?: “Rzeczywi?cie nie wypada u?ywa? s?ów pajac i  bydl? wobec urz?duj?cego prezydenta. Przepraszam za epitety, podtrzymuj?c tez?”.

W poniedzia?ek rzeczniczka Prokuratury Okr?gowej w Warszawie Monika Lewandowska powiedzia?a, ?e tego dnia Prokuratura Rejonowa Warszawa-Mokotów podj??a post?powanie sprawdzaj?ce. Nie ujawni?a, jakie czynno?ci b?d? w nim wykonywane. Post?powanie sprawdzaj?ce ko?czy si? w ci?gu miesi?ca decyzj? o wszcz?ciu ?ledztwa lub odmow? tego.
W lipcu br. Trybuna? Konstytucyjny orzek?, ?e art. 135 par. 2 Kodeksu karnego, przewiduj?cy kar? do trzech lat wi?zienia za publiczne zniewa?enie prezydenta RP, jest zgodny z ustaw? zasadnicz?. TK podkre?li?, ?e prezydentowi “nale?ny jest szczególny szacunek i cze??”, a jego zniewa?enie jest zarazem “zniewa?eniem samej Rzeczypospolitej”. Zdaniem TK karalno?? takiego zniewa?enia nie ogranicza prawa do krytyki.
W pa?dzierniku br. bielski s?d skaza? na 3 miesi?ce wi?zienia w zawieszeniu 27-latka za zniewa?enie prezydenta Lecha Kaczy?skiego. M??czyzna w 2007 r. napisa? program, który po wpisaniu w wyszukiwarce obra?liwego s?owa sprawia?, ?e na pierwszym miejscu wyników wyszukiwania pojawia?a si? oficjalna strona prezydenta.
Najg?o?niejszym trwaj?cym ?ledztwem o zniewa?enie g?owy pa?stwa jest sprawa autora strony antykomor.pl. By?y tam m.in. gry polegaj?ce na strzelaniu do wizerunku Komorowskiego oraz zdj?cia przedstawiaj?ce go – jak podkre?la?a ABW – jako “prostytutk?, homoseksualist?, pijaka, Józefa Stalina, uczestnika czynno?ci seksualnych”. W maju br. ABW wesz?a do mieszkania autora strony i zabezpieczy?a jego laptopa. Zleci?a to prokuratura w Tomaszowie Maz., prowadz?ca ?ledztwo w sprawie zniewa?enia g?owy pa?stwa.
Zaraz po tym incydencie prezydencki doradca Tomasz Na??cz mówi?, ?e nale?y zmieni? prawo co do karania za zniewa?enie prezydenta. Tak?e premier Donald Tusk deklarowa? wtedy, ?e “najwy?szy czas zmieni? przynajmniej te przepisy, które chroni? bardziej polityków od innych ludzi”.
Zdaniem Helsi?skiej Fundacji Praw Cz?owieka art. 135 nie odpowiada standardom Europejskiego Trybuna?u Praw Cz?owieka. Fundacja uwa?a, dawa?aby si? z nimi pogodzi? tylko reakcja na “ekstremalne przypadki zniewa?enia g?owy pa?stwa, po??czonego z rzeczywistym zagro?eniem dla bezpiecze?stwa kraju, mow? nienawi?ci lub bezpo?rednim nawo?ywaniem do przemocy”.

One of the most well-liked online games lately unveiled is really Contact connected with Work: Dark-colored Ops regarding Xbox live in addition to PLAYSTATION 3 games consoles. This particular online game is a huge huge reach since it had been out there out there about November 9, 2010. It’s a first-person player with the dice game that has been produced by Treyarch and posted by means of Activision.

Black color Ops would be the seventh fitting inside Call up associated with Obligation operation although should be only the third activity to become manufactured by Treyarch. African american Ops is the primary from the sequence within the Wintry War but will be the sequel on the Contact of Obligation: Planet on Warfare activity.

They have built up a lot more than $1 Billion dollars with yucky sales within the first six to eight weeks after discharge. It’s busted files set simply by it’s forerunner Current Emulation through no less than 2. 5 thousand replicates. Their reputation keeps upon developing worldwide. Within Okazaki, japan, there was clearly game secretes having subtitles in addition to dubbed variations 1 month after the sport was published in the industry.

Call of Obligation: Black Ops allows a new player to be able to assume the actual purpose of any jewellry together with entry to numerous weapons (for the most part only two can be taken at anytime), make use of lots of explosives which includes grenades, as well as use numerous guns. The action strongly has a resemblance to an adrenaline-rush battlefield and also uses a new wipe out or even be killer tactic. A person may also want to kill a foe utilizing a chef’s knife along with just one single blow.

The overall game represents an authentic undertake exactly how those who get into fight. Gamers can readily end up being handled to help hop, operate along with wander. The player’s healthy posture can even be governed. For example, a player can take in a very positioned, crouching, or inclined pose. Each and every stance can influence the particular player’s pace, stealth as well as accuracy and reliability. A new player can certainly manage intended for awhile although will become worn out.

The particular player’s health and fitness is usually indicated around the screen that can turn crimson to indicate extensive harm. One of the fascinating well loved features of this specific sport can be that whenever the grenade will be thrown, any marker in which implies your grenade’s course will appear that may help the participant sometimes run away or maybe place again this grenade as long as you is due to the particular radius from the grenade’s boost. Aside from weapons along with explosives, additional tools you can use inside the activity are generally ballistic cutlery, crossbows together with mind-blowing bullets as well as products, and Dragon’s Inhale rounds.

A new player can easily suppose the actual part of varied in-game people for the duration of the single-player marketing campaign using lots of point of view altering all during the entire activity. This personas that can be played out remain in your Unique Makes party who certainly are executing black businesses within opposing forces area.

Call connected with Job: Dark Ops attributes an abundance of scripted cinematic moments such as a new bullet occasion result in the “Victor Charlie” period which can be turned on if your gambler sets to the very last person in some sort of Viet Cong squadron.

Among the best features throughout Black Ops will be it may be used to delight in multiplayer on the net matches together with others coming from world wide. People tend to be separated into a couple of clubs which may have diverse missions. Within Group Deathmatch, the objective would be to have an overabundance of wipes out than the various other workforce when it is in Capture the actual Banner, the avid gamers ought to get one other team’s flag and carry it into their bottom. Another highlight is the particular “Free For All” environment where by it is each and every person for the children personal, avid gamers aren’t broken down into clubs in this environment.

a href=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NGr0CwPV50″Buy Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3/a previously offers 15 roadmaps and extra down-loadable routes. The item still maintains the particular unlockable compensate technique as well as experience things that were using the operation because fourth activity. a href=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc1GTMmWp3I”Buy Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3/a also offers the “Zombie co-operation mode” that has been originally contained in the Globe in Battle online game.

The bailout of the Greek economy has become emblematic of the divergent policy measures and economic strategies deployed worldwide to address weakening growth prospects and worsening sovereign indebtedness. Efforts to monetize sovereign debt by increasing money supply via ECB government bond buys are a visible example of the economic impasse that states find themselves in. While these monetary measures are increasingly perceived as the only policy options for governments, they exacerbate systemic economic and structural imbalances and pose intensifying risks to global economic security.

Measures that have been considered include, among others, stricter budgetary rules, limits on budgets and economic policies, creation of Eurobonds, and a go to a fiscal union. Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California believes that getting to a fiscal union would require revision of the EU’s treaties and issuing Eurobonds a political consensus that will take months to build. Europe, but, doesn’t have time. It is therefore critical, he says, that leaders distinguish what must be done now from what can be left for later.” He further argues that Germany and France can recapitalize banks on their own while countries in weaker fiscal position could appeal to the European Financial Stability Facility and the IMF if required. And then there are SWFS and emerging economeis, as well.

In the view of Dr. a href=”http://www.realclearworld.com/authors/alexander_mirtchev/”Alexander Mirtchev/a, President of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) International, the solutions sought by governments are less than optimal due to their focus on addressing liquidity rather than the underlying problem of solvency. As a result, the systemic imbalances that remain unaddressed continue to impact the global economic security framework. But, as Mirtchev indicates, these solutions are predominantly designed to maintain the social and political balances that exist. The question is whether these measures sacrifice future global economic growth.

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics claims that four major things need to happen to prevent a depression: first, “countries able to provide small-term stimulus should do so and postpone their own austerity efforts” (e.g. US, UK, Germany, the core of the eurozone, and Japan) and infrastructure banks should be made as well; second, “while monetary policy has limited impact when the problems are excessive debt and insolvency rather than illiquidity, credit easing, rather than just quantitative easing, can be helpful”; third, “to restore credit growth, eurozone banks and banking systems that are under-capitalized should be strengthened with public financing in an European Union-wide program”; fourth, “large-scale liquidity provision for solvent governments is necessary to avoid a spike in spreads and loss of market access that would turn illiquidity into insolvency.”

Until the EU addresses the question of political, economic, and financial integration, it will continue experiencing booms and busts with the grand experiment, which was initiated decades ago but requires radical adjustments in the new century. So, there is a map – the issue is whether the Minotaur waits at the end.

Source: The Gulf Today